The situation in Yemen is reaching a critical point as a massive build-up of Saudi-backed forces is underway on the country's border. This comes as the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group, faces mounting pressure to retreat from significant territorial gains in the oil-rich Hadramaut governorate.
A Forceful Show of Strength: Approximately 20,000 troops, primarily from the Saudi-funded National Shield militia, are assembling in areas near the Saudi border, namely al-Wadeeah and al-Abr. This display of military might is in response to the STC's recent advances, which have alarmed regional powers.
The STC's Bold Move: The STC, backed by the United Arab Emirates, is pushing for a drastic change in Yemen's political landscape. They demand a return to the pre-1990 arrangement of two states, north and south. This move has not gone unnoticed by Saudi Arabia, which has warned the STC of potential direct airstrikes, threatening their newly acquired positions.
A Complex Web of Alliances: Despite the Saudi warning, the STC remains confident of UAE support, setting the stage for potential clashes between Saudi and UAE-aligned troops. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has warned that a full-scale conflict in Yemen could have far-reaching consequences across the region, urging all parties to avoid unilateral actions that could lead to further fragmentation.
The Human Cost of Conflict: The ongoing crisis has already forced nearly 5 million Yemenis to flee their homes due to the civil war between the Houthis in the north and the southern forces. The STC's refusal to comply with Saudi demands to withdraw from Hadramaut and al-Mahra governorates, and their expansion into Abyan, has complicated matters. And this is where it gets controversial—the STC's bold move has caught Riyadh off guard, challenging its dominant role in Yemen.
A Potential New Power Dynamic: The STC's proposal for an independent south, acting as a bulwark against Houthi and al-Qaida terrorism, has divided opinions. While some southern groups support this idea, others do not. The STC's ability to form a cohesive government will be a significant test.
Regional Experts Weigh In: Farea al-Muslimi, a Middle East expert, suggests that Saudi Arabia's patience may be wearing thin, but a direct war with the UAE in Yemen is not inevitable. He highlights the complex dynamics at play, with numerous young fighters and proxies involved. The situation is particularly sensitive for Saudi Arabia, as the events are unfolding on its borders.
The Significance of Hadramaut: With the STC's control over Hadramaut, which covers 36% of Yemen's territory and holds the country's largest oil reserves, they can claim dominance over the old southern state of Yemen. Key ports like Mukalla, al-Shihr, and the oil terminal at al-Dhabba are now under their control.
Growing Calls for Withdrawal: The Islah party, Yemen's largest political party opposing southern secession, believes that calls for the STC to withdraw from Hadramaut are gaining momentum. During a visit to London, Islah's acting secretary general, Abdulrazak al-Hijri, expressed hope for a peaceful resolution but warned of the negative impact on state institutions. He also alleged widespread human rights abuses by the STC, including theft and mass arrests.
The Houthi Perspective: Al-Hijri further claimed that the Houthis view Yemenis as a group of slaves, not as a people, which adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.
A Complex Political Landscape: Islah denies any connection with the Muslim Brotherhood, contrary to UAE claims. The STC's recent actions have disrupted the fragile power-sharing arrangement on the Saudi-organised presidential leadership council, which included Islah and other groups.
The Road Ahead: With tensions rising and various factions vying for control, the future of Yemen hangs in the balance. Will the STC's actions lead to a new era of independence or further escalate the conflict? The world watches as this volatile situation unfolds, leaving many questions unanswered.
